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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/30 10:44

   Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday

   Corn futures are 11 to 12 cents higher at midday Friday; soybean futures are 
9 to 11 cents higher; wheat futures are 8 to 14 cents higher. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are 11 to 12 cents higher at midday Friday; soybean futures are 
9 to 11 cents higher; wheat futures are 8 to 14 cents higher. The U.S. stock 
market is firmer with the DOW up 85 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 20 points 
lower. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are mixed with crude down 
.80. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals are firmer 
with gold up 14.00.


   Corn futures are 11 to 12 cents higher at midday with trade firming back 
into the middle of the range ahead of the USDA quarterly stocks report release. 
The stocks report is expected to show 1.512 billion bushels (bb) of corn on 
hand. Short-term forecasts have the center of the belt drier with 
warmer-than-normal temps over the next couple of weeks to keep harvest moving 
along. The export wire will need to show more life soon. Ethanol margins will 
likely chop along with softer driving demand and refinery disruptions to keep 
upside limited for now. Basis will be watched to see how quickly we go to 
harvest footing everywhere, and how aggressively the west will bid for corn in 
the deficit areas into early harvest with notable strength already, while 
intra-month spreads soften short term before firming slightly pre-report. On 
the December chart, trade is just above the 20-day moving average at $6.78 with 
the lower Bollinger Band at $6.59 as support.


   Soybean futures are 9 to 11 cents higher at midday with trade working to 
build further support above $14.00 after testing it earlier the week with 
position squaring pre-report and harvest pressure likely to limit upside into 
the weekend. Meal is $4.00 to $5.00 higher, and oil is 25 to 35 points lower. 
The stocks report is expected to show 242 million bushels (mb) on hand as of 
Sept. 1. South America has early planting underway with late demand picking up 
ahead of the U.S. export window with the dollar reversal from Thursday needing 
to hold. Brazil is in better shape than Argentina early on with their 
aggressive movement of old-crop supplies likely to run the course soon. Basis 
will continue to shift toward harvest footing with trade watching to see how 
quickly export shipments pick up into the end of the month with some further 
near-term basis pressure expected into October, along with intramonth spread 
weakness adding carry in recent days. The daily wire has been quiet recently, 
increasing the demand concerns short term. On the November soybean chart, trade 
has the 20-day moving average at $14.33 as resistance, with the lower Bollinger 
band at $13.70 as support.


   Wheat futures are 8 to 14 cents higher at midday with trade continuing to 
work the upper end of the range as we wait for direction from row crops post 
report and any fresh political developments after the Putin annexation speech 
this morning. Wheat stocks are expected to be at 1.776 bb this morning. The 
Plains look dry, short term, but enough recent rains fell in some areas to keep 
planting moving forward with spring harvest likely wrapped up. MATIF wheat 
remains near the upper end of the range with some light buying Friday and 
little fresh news on the grain shipment front, while Russia continues to make 
fresh territorial claims. The KC December chart has support at the 20-day 
moving average at $9.36, and the Upper Bollinger band at $9.97 as resistance.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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